Key Takeaways
Monmouth Mayor Coffey, is on the right track, that North Jersey should not be getting two casinos, but I believe a single casino up North, at the Meadowlands, would also produce funds for purses and other Racing purposes, where Monmouth races Thoroughbreds, a more popular breed than Meadowland's Harness Racing.A Meadowlands casino would also return an estimated $200 million a year, annually, to Senior and disabled programs; that have seen their funds from AC's casino win decline by $1.8 billion, since slots were approved in the Fall of 2006 in Pennsylvania. The Jersey City casino would take 3 to 4 years to plan and build; a Manhattan casino even longer; where the Meadowlands could be open with slot machines next year, subject to a successful referendum. And a full build-out of a Meadowlands Resort, would include a multitude of dining options, a superstar theater, entertainment lounges, and probably no more than 300 rooms. This would be much like the MGM; opening this Fall, just outside Washington , and serving D.C, Northern Virginia and Southern Maryland. But there are two questions, that will be in the minds of the NJ voters; first is the tax rate. Jeff Gural, operator of the Meadowlands suggested, several years ago, that he could pay the same slot win tax as PA, which is 55%. A North Jersey casino, should also include table games; to make them competitive with Eastern PA casino, and Maryland, and give the Meadowlands casino a substantial advantage over Yonkers and Aqueduct, which only offer slots. PA taxes its table win at 16%, which would be suitable for North Jersey gaming.The second issue, leads back to 1974, when casinos were first proposed, but would be allowed anywhere in the State. NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) won the day 60% to 40%, and only succeeded two years later, when restricted to Atlantic City, with the 8% win taxes going to Seniors and disabled programs. So since the referendum includes two potential casino sites (that must be a minimum of 72 miles from AC); why not just pick two communities, and eliminate the rest of the State from consideration. And I would suggest that one of the locations chosen by the Legislature, be the Meadowlands, because it could be providing $200 million a year (or more) to Seniors and disabled programs; $200 million (or more) to Atlantic City, which should include programs that will help them transition from a casino resort to a convention/trade show resort, with casinos, and maybe provide real estate tax relief to casino resorts.. New Jersey will not loose 30,000 jobs, as portrayed by AC some opponents of the referendum; but would actually increase the number of New Jersey casino industry employees. Most of the likely $1 billion or more in win at a Meadowlands casino, would come primarily from Eastern PA casino, from Aqueduct and Yonkers racinos. And from NJ, Manhattan, Staten Island and Orange CO, NY.And much or the overall regions win growth; would come from convenience, especially on mid-week evenings.And a big new market would be impacted; by the visitors to Manhattan, staying at the City's 98,700 rooms. Using 80% mid-week occupancy, where business travelers and the convention trades are the primary occupants (at much higher room rates, than Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights), assuming 1.2 guests per room,; I come up with roughly 20 million guest nights. These affluent guests, are a potential mid-week bonanza for a meal, entertainment, or casino play at a Meadowland's casino complex. Most tourist visitors, usually prefer week end dates (and the lower room rates),. and assuming a 60% week end occupancy, at 1.9 guests per room; we add another 15 million visitor nights,. That totals 35 million visitor nights, where even a small percentage of these visitors, businessmen and convention attendees, should find their way to the Meadowlands, the added casino revenues, should be several hundred $ million. My guesstimate, is that AC would only loose $250 or $300 million in win to a North Jersey casino, which would translate to a $50 to $75 million drop in earnings (EBITDA); which is much less that the probable $200 million, that would come to AC; with hopefully some to help underwrite new air service AC International, promote conventions and trade shows and possibly cut the Casino real estate taxes.
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